I'll have no job left if the toss is done away with.
-
Ravi
Shastri
TLDR: Cricket match
results have become too dependent on the toss of a coin. In order to make Cricket
the result of skill rather than dumb luck, it is proposed that Run Auction Toss
or RAT be used, wherein captains bid the no. of runs they are willing to
sacrifice, if they get the chance to decide whether to bat first or bowl. Not
only this, RAT will:
- Make a television spectacle out of the boring process of conducting toss which most of us skip when watching a match
- Help provide a objective ranking of stadiums globally and provide a rational basis for rewarding pitch curators and ground staff
Two approaches of implementing RAT are
discussed – the Shotgun Approach which
is quick and the Outbid Approach
which is exciting.
Problem Statement
Most of the matches nowadays are day-night affairs in order
to maximize stadium audience and TV viewership. Using a dataset of ~40000+ first
class and international cricket matches, Sood & Willis (March 2016) have estimated
that in List A/ODI matches, the advantage of winning the toss in a day and
night match is 5.92%. As for T20s, till the 2015 IPL edition, teams chasing had
won 272 games and lost 236 in the IPL i.e. a win rate of 54% for the team
chasing a target. The ICC has been murmuring about solving this problem using multiple
approaches but no concrete action has been taken so far.
Things have only gone downhill in the 2016 IPL edition. Too
many matches are being won by the luckier team now, and not the better team. Coin
toss has become one of the most prominent factors in deciding the fate of a
match. The current IPL is the best example of what happens when difference in
the quality of the teams has become immaterial. A typical match in the 2016 IPL
has gone like this – Win toss, bat second, win the match. 20-5 Win-loss record
for teams chasing over teams batting first after the first 25 matches of IPL
2016.
Various factors hand over decisive advantage to the team winning
the toss:
- Knowing the target
- Day-night match - nightfall and dew; switching on the floodlights
- Overcast conditions
- Deterioration/easing up of the pitch (might not be too relevant in a T20)
Solution
A Run Action Toss (RAT) wherein each of the Captain states at the
beginning of the match how many runs they are willing to cede to the other side
for the honor of choosing the order of play
Each of the captains would be aware of the playing
conditions and strengths & weaknesses of both teams. Based on their
assessment, they decide on the quantum of runs which would make it worth their
while to bowl first and exploit the overcast conditions or to chase because
they feel the pitch is a belter. Moreover, it will even make a spectator sport
out of the whole currently mundane process of coin toss. Further it will align
the incentives of curators and grounds staff with that of the spirit of the
game, by rewarding them for preparing pitches which result in zero or minimum runs
being bid for by Captains. Currently they have fixed incentives and may often be
driven to do the bidding of the local team.
Practical Implementation
The Two Team Captains enter the War Room which is styled on
the “Who Want’s To be a Millionaire” set with a similar background music during
the process. They both enter their RAT bids simultaneously on a Computer
screen. The runs become visible to TV spectators right away. If both Captain’s
bid the same number of runs, then a coin toss can be conducted. In the Shotgun approach,
the RAT winner is immediately decided. The outbid
approach is a two-stage toss and exciting. Here the Captain with the lower
RAT score in Stage 1 gets one chance to outbid his counterpart. The Counterpart
Captain can then increase his bid again or simply cede.
Devil’s Advocate
How will we incorporate
negative runs into the cricket scoreboards?
It is manageable. Lets say Team A wins the toss by bidding
12 runs and chooses to bat. Then the team batting second would begin their
innings by already having a score of 12 for no loss at ball zero.
Won’t Captains face
undue criticism for overbidding or underbidding?
Well, when have they not faced undue criticism? Moreover,
RAT decisions would bring out their cricket acumen and given them a better a
reason to be proud of their leadership rather than just dumb luck.
Alternatively, they would not be able to blame losses on tosses.
Is this even an issue?
As
per David Franklin’s The Nightwatchman, based on the results of 1397 Test
matches with a result, 53% of the contests were won by the side winning the
toss. He even computed the value of the coin toss as 28 runs. In fact he proposed
a “sealed bid” system similar to the Shotgun Approach proposed in this article.
So coin toss makes a difference even in test matches.
The corresponding advantage of winning a toss in ODIs is 54%.
As per Sood & Willis (March 2016), toss is most
crucial in ODIs giving an advantage of 3.3%, followed by first class and test
matches (2.6%) and T20s (1.27%). Perhaps RAT can be introduced on an experimental
basis in T20 cricket and then extended gradually to other forms. Moreover, if
the problem does not exist in the 50-over format or Test Cricket, then both
Captains would bid “Zero” runs and the game can still go ahead with a random coin
toss.
It does not solve the
Home Advantage problem
If the Curator and stadium management are rewarded each time
the RAT process results in a bid of less than say 5 runs, voila, you have
aligned their incentives with the spirit of the game; the more sporting/consistent
the ground/pitch, the higher their rewards.
Sources:
- Fairly Random: The
Impact of Winning the Toss on the Probability of Winning - Gaurav Sood &
Derek Willis (March 7, 2016)
- The Nightwatchman
- Issue 7 – Pg 9 – David Franklin
